I had an e-mail a few days ago from someone who was confused about the Isaac Haxton video and my comments about it. Simply it is to do with various factors and the main one being how expected value is more important as the field size shrinks.
Let us look at a six handed example, you have five opponents and 2 are superior to you, one is about break even and the other two are inferior. Now in NLHE we can theoretically calculate our EV against each player. I say theoretically because most of the time it simply will not be possible to calculate it accurately.
But let us say that against the two players who are better than you (assume stakes are NL1000) that they have an earn rate over you of +0.5 buy-ins each per hour of play. So you are losing $1000/hour being on the table with these players. This may seem awkward but is merely the sum total of the amount of equity that this players are dragging from the table and then breaking it down to a per player basis based on numerous factors…….keep with me here.
The third player is break even with you so you are basically recycling money against this player. The other two players are worse than you. One is providing you with an earn rate of 0.5 buy-ins per hour and the other is providing you with an earn rate of 0.6 buy-ins per hour. You now have an earn rate in this game of 0.1 of a buy-in per hour which is $100/hour. This is the $1000/hour that you are losing to the two superior players and the $1100/hour that you are gaining from the two inferior players.
This is despite having two players out of five who are better than you. But reduce this to a heads up situation and the dynamic shifts abruptly. But even in six max, game selection is critical. If one of the three players who are not +EV against you leaves this table then you have a potential -EV situation about to arise. If the player who is passing you 0.5 buy-ins per hour leaves then the game is now a bad game for you as your expectation is now now longer $100/hour but -$400/hour or 0.4 buy-ins.
In fact even if the break even player leaves and is replaced by another player who is only marginally better than you then your entire earn rate has been wiped out. We cannot always assess these situations as accurately as this in the heat of battle but this is why experience is so vital at any level. You need to know how good the players are at the new level and how that relates to you. If you can do this then you can have a better understanding of EV in online poker games.
In poker you make money by making a series of correct poker decisions or as many as you possibly can. So if you get into a game with a player who is better than you then you have a -EV situation and you cannot make money in poker putting yourself into these situations. Let us say that an employer paid you $100/day to do a certain job.
But if your employer said to you that if you went into work on a certain day that not only would he not pay you but also he would fine you $200 for coming into work…..would you go to work on that day? A silly example maybe but it highlights game selection in poker and how you can avoid bad situations and games simply by not sitting in them…..the key is to know your own skill and how that fits in with your opponents and this takes a lot of hands on work.
See you soon
Carl “The Dean” Sampson at poker loco
