I am going to start this blog off by looking at one of the simplest games of all to prove a point and that game is noughts and crosses which I am sure you all know well. What I am essentially discussing here is the level of complexity within games and how that affects strategy and with it any profit potential providing that the games are played for financial gain.
We can begin to build game complexity by first looking at simple games far removed from online poker to highlight a point and noughts and crosses does that for us. In that game then with the use of a very simple and easily learned strategy then it isn’t possible for either player to beat the other irrespective of who goes first or second. The player who goes first can simply move in the middle and straight away by doing that then his opponent loses out on the chance to make four lines. But once the player moving second blocks three further lines by moving into one of the corners then the game simply meanders to a stalemate!
There is a reason why noughts and crosses is never played for money and that is because the game is too simple to master and even if you had two outright novices playing each other and one learned the simple strategy while the other didn’t then the game would soon die in terms of being a vehicle for cash games.
So to have earning potential in any form of gambling or risk then you need more complexity and the ability to be able to gain an edge. But also you need variance because without variance and complexity then all games would diminish to a situation akin to noughts and crosses or to the other end of the spectrum like Chess where variance plays little part in the outcome and skill differences are too easily identified.
In online poker then some games like limit hold’em have become theoretically solved by the best players and this has led to the game stagnating above certain levels. However this is in part to do with the fact that the game has structured betting and so much of the complexity of the game has been eliminated compared to other forms of poker like no limit hold’em where the betting is more multi-layered.
Because of the added complexity then there will always be many players who will either not have the time or the inclination to ever master the game. While it is true that they may play the game quite well, the game just has too much complexity for them to move beyond certain levels of play. But the key factor here for the good players who have taken those next steps is that variance can and does often blind weaker players into thinking that they are better than they really are.
You may find a player who is breaking even at say NL100.
He makes $20,000 per year in rakeback but loses $20,000 per year on the tables. He perseveres in playing on because he is not losing money but the weaker players than him are paying rake which in turn goes to him which in turn gets passed to the better players to the tune of $20,000 per year. So a combination of rake, rewards and variance keeps him in the game to add liquidity to the level where he plays.
Carl Sampson is an online poker player that plays at www.888poker.com
